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2011年10月31日星期一

Sharp rise in eurozone inflation

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30 September 2011 Last updated at 11:18 GMT Continue reading the main story Last Updated at 03:49 GMT

Market indexCurrent valueTrendVariation% variationThe eurozone inflation rate increased to 3% in September, up from 2.5% in August, according to the first estimate from the EU statistics agency.

No breakdown was given, but Eurostat said its initial forecasts were usually "reliable".

Separate figures also released by Eurostat showed the eurozone unemployment rate unchanged at 10% in August from the previous month.

The number of people unemployed fell by 38,000 compared with July.

The unemployment rate in Spain, the highest in Europe, rose slightly to 21.2%, with youth unemployment hitting 46.2%.

However, the jobless rate for those under 25 in the eurozone as a whole fell slightly, to 20.4%.

Falling shares

Analysts, who had expected a small rise in inflation, pointed to technical changes in the way price rises are calculated as a contributory factor in the sharp increase.

Continue reading the main story image of Andrew Walker Andrew Walker Economics correspondent, BBC World Service

This rise in the inflation rate makes the situation even more complicated for the European Central Bank.

The ECB has been widely criticised for raising interest rates earlier this year, as several eurozone countries are struggling with government debt crises and economic growth that is either weak or completely stalled.

The ECB has an inflation target of close to but below 2%. So the increased rate of price rises will make the Bank even more cautious about making interest rate cuts.

In addition, some of the ideas being discussed for responding to the eurozone crisis involve a wider role for the European Central Bank which could be characterised as, in effect, "printing money". As this could be inflationary, the latest data on price rises underlines the potential risk of such a move.

"It's not a nice number, but I wouldn't panic that the high inflation which some have warned about for years is finally here," said Martin Van Vliet at ING.

"We will see inflation declining over the next months, staying above 2.5% but next year, with stable oil and food prices, we will fall to lower levels."

The European Central Bank target for inflation is 2%, and the bank raised interest rates in July from 1.25% to 1.5% in order to combat rising prices.

However, the continuing debt crisis makes further rate rises in the coming months unlikely, analysts say.

With confidence in the outlook for economic growth in the eurozone fragile, policymakers are unlikely to risk raising rates, they say.

Equally, however, sharply rising prices make a cut in interest rates less likely.

This put further downward pressure on markets that fell sharply in early trading.

Germany's Dax index was down 2.5%, with France's Cac 40 and the UK's FTSE 100 sliding about 1.5%.


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2011年10月26日星期三

Experts debate eurozone options

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2 October 2011 Last updated at 00:06 GMT A number of ideas are reportedly being discussed to tackle the eurozone debt crisis.

These include a 50% write-down of Greece's government debts, strengthening big European banks that could be hit by any defaults by highly indebted governments, and boosting the size of the eurozone bailout fund, the European Financial Stability Facility (EFSF).

Here, eight economists discuss what they think will happen and what they think needs to happen in the eurozone.

Vicky Pryce

Senior managing director of economics at FTI Consulting and former UK government adviser

Last week's events, with all the market volatility, were a serious wake-up call to all international institutions and to policymakers. I think they've understood it and institutions will be set up in such a way to ensure future crises should be averted.

I think we will see a haircut on Greek bonds, a recapitalisation programme for banks and an increase in the size of the bailout fund - but you need all these things, they need to be part of a package.

Even with that, in a year's time Europe will still be pretty weak because the long-term problems will still be there - low growth and unsustainable debt.

What we have seen for Greece will have to happen elsewhere. Haircuts are inevitable for other countries too.

They have to rethink how you achieve faster growth in Europe. If you don't get back to growth then the debt problems will remain.

The next thing that needs to be looked at seriously is issuing eurobonds. That may well be what we need in the longer term to lead us back to growth.

Director, Centre for European Policy Studies

We believe a market-based approach is needed to reduce Greece's debt.

The EFSF should offer holders of Greek debt an exchange into EFSF paper at the current market price. Banks would be forced in the context of the ongoing stress tests to write down holdings in their banking book and thus have an incentive to accept the offer.

More widely, we argue that the EFSF needs to be restructured.

You cannot just increase its size because if Italy or Spain were to step out as a guarantor, that would leave France, for instance, with a share of 40%, which it could not sustain and would lose its triple-A credit rating.

It cannot work as intended, but if it were re-registered as a bank, which would give it access to potentially unlimited ECB refinancing in case of emergency, the general breakdown in confidence could be stopped while leaving the management of public debt under the supervision of finance ministers.

Iain Begg

Professorial research fellow, the European Institute of the London School of Economics. Currently researching EU economic policy, governance and policy co-ordination under European Monetary Union

The one obvious thing leaders should do would be to decide rapidly on a way of moving towards genuine eurobonds.

The Germans, manifestly, are very hostile to the idea, but it is a development that seems to have so many advantages that it ought to be pursued.

The trick will be to find a formula that deals with the "moral hazard" objections by introducing well-judged conditionality.

Economist at Open Europe, an independent think tank campaigning for reform of the EU

Greece obviously needs to restructure. It's looking at write-downs of 50% - that's a necessary step. It finally looks like the eurozone leaders are coming round to that.

But if it's not combined with recapitalising banks and other economic reforms it won't work.

In terms of the write-downs, banks will be able to absorb the hit because they should have been preparing for it for the last year. I think it would be necessary to use the EFSF to help recapitalise these banks and provide a backstop.

At the moment there's no clear pan-European mechanism for dealing with winding down a cross-border bank. I think we need a policy for what happens in this situation, a huge policy that needs to be detailed.

They also have to look at the different needs of the eurozone - for instance, interest rates in Germany would be very different to those in Greece. Those imbalances aren't going to go away.

George Magnus in a green shirt

Senior Economic Adviser, UBS Investment Bank

What I think the Europeans will choose to do is leverage the capital of the EFSF (currently 440bn euros) up by borrowing 5-10 times that from the market. They would then have the capacity to go and buy all of the sickly sovereign bonds that the banks are sitting on and swap them for bonds they themselves will issue.

I don't think it would be successful. In the short run it would probably be a bit of a tonic for bank stock prices and equity markets, but it doesn't do anything to solve the problem of the euro crisis at all.

I think you need a combination of three things.

These are: a restructuring template for Greece's debt with long gross periods - three years for the interest payment and 5-10 years for the principal repayment. That template might then have to be used for other countries.

Then, to stop Greek banks collapsing, you have to support the Greek banking system. And to stop banking contagion spreading to the likes of Italy and Spain, you need a banking recapitalisation programme.

And if the ECB said they were prepared to stand by and buy any amount of Spanish and Italian bonds, then we'd raise three cheers.

Anything that stops short of cleansing the European banking system will not be enough.

Chairman and chief economist, Lombard Street Research

The problem is that the Club Med countries - Greece, Italy, Spain and Portugal - are not competitive. Even if they agree to writing down Greek debts and increasing the EFSF, that will only be successful in postponing the issue for a few more months. It won't stop debt going up.

For the euro to survive the only solution is for the Club Med countries to leave the single currency. I think Ireland could stay in the euro as, although it's banking system is a mess, it is cost competitive - exports make up most of its GDP - so it is possible to turn the economy round quite fast.

Holger Schmieding

Former economist at Merrill Lynch/Bank of America, now chief economist at Berenberg Bank

The probability that we will get a significant write-down of Greek debt as part of an orderly programme, with an immediate recapitalisation of Greek banks, and with further European support for Greece, has risen substantially.

The key question in all this is nothing to do with Greece - but whether upon granting Greece debt relief we can protect Italy from the market panic and prevent contagion.

The risk Greece will default is now above 50%. But Greece is highly likely to stay in the euro come what may.

I would like to see the ECB commit to being the ultimate backstop - if things get really ugly the ECB should buy more government bonds.

Professor of economics at the Graduate Institute in Geneva, specialises in monetary integration, monetary policy and financial crisis

Discussions about the EFSF are irrelevant. It shows policymakers haven't zeroed in on the crisis and what to do about it. The EFSF currently has 440bn euros. The amount we're talking about for Italy and Spain, as well as Greece, Portugal and Ireland could be 3.5 trillion euros.

I think that Greece will inevitably default, and I believe that Italy too will have to default, but I don't see a willingness in policymakers to accept that.

The ECB is the only institution that can stop the crisis. My solution is for the ECB to issue a partial guarantee on the existing public debts of eurozone governments, of say, up to 60% of GDP. It would allow governments to default but would create a backstop.


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2011年10月23日星期日

Shares up on eurozone bank plan

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5 October 2011 Last updated at 21:02 GMT Angela Merkel German support is considered crucial for any European bank rescue proposal European stock markets ignored fresh warnings about Italy's ability to repay its debts by staging a strong rally.

Reports that European leaders are considering co-ordinated action to bolster banks sent European markets up 3%-5%, while Wall Street also rallied.

On Tuesday, Moody's cut Italy's credit rating by three notches and warned about the country's growth rate.

But investors focused on signs that the debt-laden banking system may soon be recapitalised by European authorities.

German support

In an interview in the Financial Times, Olli Rehn, European commissioner for economic affairs, said: "There is an increasingly shared view that we need a concerted, co-ordinated approach.

"There is a sense of urgency among ministers and we need to move on," he said.

German Chancellor Angela Merkel also said she favoured a pan-European recapitalisation programme if it proves necessary, and that she stood ready to help German banks absorb losses from a possible write-off of Greece's debts.

Continue reading the main story
There are some European regulators and politicians who regard the downgrade of Italy and the woes of the Franco-Belgian bank Dexia as positive events (oh yes)”

End Quote image of Robert Peston Robert Peston Business editor, BBC News German support is seen as crucial for any such proposal to succeed.

Meanwhile, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) - which has also been calling for eurozone governments to bolster their banks - put the likely cost of such a programme at 200bn euros ($267bn; £173bn).

That would put it within the means of the eurozone's bailout fund - the European Financial Stability Facility (EFSF) - which is currently being augmented.

In an embarrassing gaffe, the IMF's Europe director, Antonio Borges, suggested in a press conference that the IMF itself may add its own money to the EFSF's.

But he later rushed out a statement retracting his comments, noting that the IMF lacked the legal authority for such a move, nor did the idea have the backing of the IMF's shareholders, which include the US government.

Banks rise

Signs that Europe's leaders were ready to act came on Tuesday when plans were announced to split struggling Franco-Belgian financial group Dexia into its "good" and "bad" banks.

This plan to ring-fence Dexia's toxic debts led to an initial 10% jump in the firm's share prices in early trading, but it ended the day only 1.4% higher.

Continue reading the main story The problems at Dexia have further undermined the credibility of stress tests carried out earlier this year by European regulators to determine the resilience of the EU's banks - tests that Dexia comfortably passed.

Any recapitalisation programme may need to be preceded by a new round of stress tests, according to the BBC's business editor, Robert Peston, and would presumably consider the possibility of a significant write-off of Greek - and possibly other government - debts.

France's three big banks, which are also heavily exposed to Greece, rose sharply on stock markets, with Credit Agricole 9.9% higher at the close of trading.

Italy's biggest banks were up 5%-7%, while in London Barclays rose 7.7% and RBS was 5% higher.

The rally, which began as a late surge on Wall Street on Tuesday night, continued into US trading hours on Wednesday.

By the close of trading in New York, the Dow Jones was up a further 1.2%, with tech and media stocks taking the lead, while the Nasdaq rose 2.3%.


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2011年10月22日星期六

AUDIO: Germany 'committed to eurozone'

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Germany's Chancellor Angela Merkel will today ask her country's politicians to sign off a plan to give more money to Europe's bail out fund.

Peter Altmaier, leader of the parliamentary group for the Christian Democrats, predicts the result and the long term consequences for Angela Merkel.

And Europe editor Gavin Hewitt previews a test of her power and authority.

Get in touch with Today via email , Twitter or Facebook or text us on 84844.


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2011年10月20日星期四

Shares up on eurozone debt hopes

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6 October 2011 Last updated at 09:47 GMT EC President Jose Manuel Barroso EC President Jose Manuel Barroso has fuelled expectations that Europe is preparing an action plan Stock markets have been boosted by expectations that European leaders are about to act to ease the debt crisis.

The main markets in London, Frankfurt and Paris were about 2% up, after Hong Kong closed 5.6% higher.

European Commission President Jose Manuel Barroso said in a television interview that there were plans for co-ordinated action to recapitalise banks.

More details of any action plan could come later at a European Central Bank press conference.

There have been a flurry of reports and comments in recent days that European authorities have negotiated plans to bolster banks and boost bailout funds.

On Thursday, Mr Barroso fuelled expectations further, telling Euronews TV that the EU executive was proposing "co-ordinated action" to the 27 European Union nations to bolster banks.

The intention was to "recapitalise banks and get rid of toxic assets they may have".

Continue reading the main story
You can see this as creeping progress towards putting adequate shock absorbers into the eurozone's financial system.”

End Quote image of Robert Peston Robert Peston Business editor, BBC News On Thursday afternoon, European Central Bank president Jean-Claude Trichet will lead a media briefing, which will come after the bank announces its decision on European interest rates.

Then German Chancellor Angela Merkel is due to hold talks in Berlin with Mr Trichet as well as the heads of the International Monetary Fund, the World Bank, the OECD and G20.

On Wednesday, Mr Merkel said she was in favour of a co-ordinated recapitalisation of European banks if that was deemed necessary.

Expectations that there will be action to bolster banks and boost European bailout funds began on Monday, when Olli Rehn, European commissioner for economic affairs, said there was "an increasingly shared view that we need a concerted, co-ordinated approach".

In an interview with the Financial Times, he said there was "a sense of urgency among ministers and we need to move on".


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